world cup preview no 2: spain

spain should win the world cup; for all of the hype surrounding their biggest world cup rivals, even brazil, spain have quite comfortably the most talented side in the tournament - in whichever of the systems del bosque decides to arrange them. simple enough. but unless their coach makes potentially the most controversial decision of his career, spain might find themselves overmatched during a tough run to the final.

looking through their side, and spain have perhaps only one player in their presumptive starting xi that could be accused of mediocrity, poor old joan capdevila, their underappreciated, but (in all honesty) underpowered left-back; the second weakest, well, perhaps you'd pick much-decorated barcelona captain carles puyol or sergio ramos, athletically gifted but occasionally unsure of his positioning, despite being the right-back of two la liga winning real madrid sides, but you wouldn't really want to bother. it's in central midfield though, that divine catalonian stronghold, and in attack that spain really dominate the talent, with the world's best central midfield playmaker - xavi hernandez - complemented with del bosque's choice of xabi alonso, sergio busquets, andres iniesta or cesc fabregas, playing behind a strikeforce comprised of possibly the two most complete strikers in the world, david villa and fernando torres.

this presents a problem, however. torres and villa are supreme footballers, with probably everything you'd want from more traditional strikers (as opposed to the newer, evolutionary at least, breed of false nine - ronaldo, messi, rooney, van persie). capable of playing together, the two are an obvious pairing; there isn't a side in the world, apart from perhaps maradona's argentina, that wouldn't take either. the problem is that by playing both, spain have an awkward - at best - midfield, the finesse of barcelona but without the myriad options in possession, or the sheer depth, the successive lines one needs to pierce in attack, when defending. playing both necessitates a midfield four, with xavi an automatic selection, potentially surrounded left to right by andres iniesta, xabi alonso and david silva, but that deforms the shape into something much flatter, which leaves the team less suited to taking on sides with more men in midfield when defending (difficult to press because it leaves you out of position and one man free, difficult to be passive because triangles can be formed around you, but also the third midfielder is a useful tool to cover for raiding full-backs), and attacking (there isn't that continuous recycling of options the standard three man triangle perpetuates). this might not be a problem against the weaker teams of the group stage, but faced with a stronger three man midfield in the group stages and spain could be challenged (they were even challenged by the USA's aggressive 442 in the confederations cup last year).

instead, to maximise his chances of making history del bosque needs to drop one of those forwards - probably fernando torres, partially down to his inferior link up play but also health issues - and install cesc fabregas permanently in that midfield. suddenly a linear 4-4-2 becomes a 4-3-3 in the barcelona style, with cesc, xavi and busquets dancing behind a front line of iniesta, villa and silva (with torres, mata & pedro waiting in the wings to inject a little pace off the bench). interestingly however del bosque has gone relatively light in central midfield, preferring the extra attacker, which leaves him with a difficult conundrum - risk playing, and fatiguing, your three best central midfielders from the start, or introduce the system in the group stages with the hope of minimising the chances of injury or lethargy letting him down? the latter seems like the best option, and probably represents spain's best chance.

world cup preview no 1: argentina

alright, let's do this properly: argentina will fail at this world cup. and that failure will be solely due to one man, the idiot on the right.

there's been a rather growing, disappointing murmur coming from commentators in the last two weeks that maradona might be some sort of cloaked genius, manipulating the world into buying into his incompetence before unleashing a team organising in perfect stealth, under an umbrella of faked indecision, arrogance and prejudice. nonsense. maradona has been a car-crash from start to finish, a disgrace to his nation in all honesty, presiding over a laughable attempt to qualify before crowning his own stupidity by selecting a squad that disregarded two of his best midfielders. everything he has done thus far has suggested pure, unadulterated incompetence.

reason number one that argentina should fail: maradona has picked the wrong players, and will probably play them. newcastle's jonas gutierrez in some sort of bizarre right sided shuttle role, despite being incapable of doing much except running around. an ageing juan veron in the deep lying play making role, despite languishing in argentinian football, his legs fading. four centre-backs as the back four (more on that later). no esteban cambiasso. no javier zanetti. no lucho gonzalez. what this means is that argentina will line up in a sort of 4-4-1-1, with the four centre backs sitting deep, a central midfield pairing of veron & mascherano flanked by benfica's angel di maria on the left and the aforementioned gutierrez on the right; messi plays a floating role behind the lone striker, gonzalo higuain.

of course, this just reveals a multitude of problems. it first means that argentina don't have much thrust from central midfield, with the increasingly static veron paired with the tigerish but limited mascherano. lucho gonzalez, having enjoyed a good season at porto last year and a good season at marseille this year, would have been a better fit, especially with the substandard gutierrez to his right. alternatively, dropping gutierrez and switching leo messi onto the right, in the position he plays for barca, would have suited two midfield destroyers doing mop up duty, which leads you to the perfectly suited cambiasso (left side) and mascherano (right) holding, allowing you to also insert kun aguero or carlos tevez as a second striker in a 4-2-3-1. of course, this would need attacking full-backs, which leads us neatly onward...

reason number two that argentina should fail: the lack of attacking full-backs (or full backs in general). maradona has spoken a lot of leo messi and his importance to the side. just wants him to attack you see, no tracking back for leo. so! says diego, the solution is simple: four centre-backs, none of whom progress past half-way. if you've got four centre-backs, you don't need your star attacker to slot back into a defensive position! of course, this forgets that full-backs are incredibly important, the only players that are able to actually attack space in the modern game, and also incredibly important to barcelona, which is where messi has flourished. messi can flourish at the camp nou precisely because the full backs are there to stretch the pitch as wide as possible, which does two things - it gives him, and the team, as many options as possible to keep possession, and it also makes it difficult for opposition full-backs to follow the winger as he comes inside, as they can't risk allowing someone like dani alves to slot in. this isn't to say that messi is a "system player", but certainly that a system exists to make the most of his divine talents. and that system probably doesn't involve playing nicolas otamendi at right back. even pulling jonas further back in the above 4-2-3-1 might be a better option.

of course, nonetheless, people are suggesting maradona's bullishness might be some sort of attempt at recreating the spirit of 86, where he and a bunch of cloggers combined under carlos bilardo to win a world cup final they had no business getting anywhere near. but this assumes a couple of things, namely that football today can be won in such a manner (and unless maradona has assumed the organisational and motivational abilities of jose mourinho, one would struggle to conjure the name of any club or international side that has achieved real success in the last five years with such an unashamedly one dimensional approach) or that players today can be motivated simply by naked aggression (even those who utitilise that approach best today, managers like alex ferguson, have a slightly more nuanced approach, and even then it is one legitimised by years of consistent success).

argentina will probably make it through what looks one of the two weakest groups with comparative ease, merely through the weight of talent at their disposal, and their supporters' hopes must rest on maradona using those games to stumble upon a better formula. otherwise, the albiceleste could be in for embarrassment.