final prediction: united to win

so, the two best football teams in the world face off, finally. forget about the parallels to last year, which pitted united against a substandard barca side, unmotivated, unfit and riven with internal problems: this year is different barca are better.

right?

well, certainly. last year's vintage was certainly poor, coming a distant second to a horribly mediocre real madrid side in the league as the rijkaard era finally petered out. this year's team featured a relatively injury-free leo messi (crucial), a relatively happy samuel eto'o (crucial), as well as an improved andrés iniesta, the addition of dani alves and the subtraction of that lazy sack of shit ronaldinho (crucial). now, they aren't as good as their league record suggests - they have bulldozed spanish sides with neither the ability nor inclination to defend them properly, and surged to a league title ahead of inadequate rivals - but they remain an excellent team, definitively the best footballing side in the world.

however...

i think united will win. united's strength is palpable: resolute in defence, speed and strength in attack, tactical nous throughout. regardless of their starting xi, they will have a multitude of options on the bench. i suspect that this will be too much for a barcelona side fatally flawed at the back: apparently, guardiola is considering playing seydou keita at left-back, which is indicative of their problems. keita, it seems, is reluctant, but most damning is that the alternative is sylvinho, who is actually a left-back, yet guardiola is so worried about his lack of defensive ability, he's considering playing a box to box midfielder in his place. this should worry barca fans everywhere, especially when you consider that across the back four will probably line up carles puyol, not a good player, yaya toure, a midfielder who was torn to pieces by chelsea whilst filling in at centre-back, and gerard pique, competent on the ball and with his positioning, but possessing none of the physical attributes required to combat rooney and ronaldo. add to this the injury doubts over thierry henry - who will go into the game lacking match fitness - and iniesta, and barca may be worried.

this isn't to say that united can expect it to be one-way traffic, however. without darren fletcher they will lack that crucial watercarrier in midfield, the player who will gladly do the dirty work, which is really important when playing such an accomplished passing midfield. ryan giggs, who will likely fill in, possesses supreme tactical awareness but is not going to make many tackles. a lot, therefore, will depend on anderson, who will need to be incredibly active in pressing xavi when barca have the ball, and carrick, who will need to shield the defence from deep. if those two can't make any impact, united will be in trouble; the worry, for united fans, should be that carrick, in conjunction with gareth barry, failed totally to get anywhere near the spanish midfield in england's february friendly in seville. if united wish to claim their fourth European Cup, that cannot happen again.

up front, they would do well to select a trio of rooney, ronaldo and tevez. i'm obviously not tevez's biggest fan, but he possesses an edge in pace and strength over park, and i think he can do more damage in upsetting a shaky barca backline. nevertheless, the important thing is that berbatov stays on the bench: the bulgarian won't do the work that the others offer.

so i'm guessing at a narrow united victory, 2-1. i got one semi-final totally wrong, and another pretty much right - we shall see how this turns out.