chelsea - barcelona
i think this is likely to be much closer than people anticipate. whilst i think that barca are the best team on the planet at the moment, i believe that they have benefitted from playing poor opposition in spain, in a league that suits them - they are given lots of time on the ball, the play is less physical than in others, and the defending, even by many of the better teams, is currently below-standard. they've destroyed a lyon team struggling to win ligue 1 this year and meted out a similar thrashing to an unbelievably weak bayern side who couldn't even defend their dignity.
although i don't buy into the hiddink revival too much - chelsea are still demonstrably the poorest they have been since mourinho first took the hot seat - i feel like barca will be caused problems tonight. the reason isn't because the midfield is more muscular than any xavi and iniesta usually have to deal with, although i do think that will have an impact, its just because barca can't defend very well. they don't possess a single centre-back with any pace, none of their back four are particularly strong and many - including the hideously overrated carlos puyol - just aren't very good. i think didier drogba can cause them all sorts of problems, especially if frank lampard is able to get into a rhythm with his passing. michael essien's force of nature routine can be very disruptive - i cannot think of anyone like him that barca would've faced this season - and i think that victor valdes and the rest of the team can be put under pressure at set pieces.
the worst thing for chelsea to do would be to sit back and play too passive - man united did that against the embarrassing rikjaard xi last year and nearly lost, so one can only imagine the carnage if chelsea think they can repel this year's version. they need to be aggressive and rapid, pressing forward and always looking to interrupt barca when the ball heads back towards valdes. although i think that they will still lose across the two legs, i genuinely believe that chelsea will make this tie very close.
man united vs arsenal
i feel as if arsenal will win this tie. i don't think that victory against spurs papers over the cracks for united, who were poor again in the first half and benefitted from a total psychological breakdown from spurs to rip them to shreds in the second. even without arshavin, arsenal represent a massive danger for united, as witnessed in their first meeting this season back in the autumn - without enough players in midfield willing to do the hardwork, arsenal should be able to play through united. for united to win, they will need excellent performances from both vidic and ferdinand.
the only problem i can see for arsenal is the line-up wenger chooses to go with. denilson is simply not a good player, offering sideways passing and no defensive presence, and i think they would be best served with a song-nasri partnership, behind fabregas.
for united, the key will need to be a better combination in midfield and attack. what saturday demonstrated again, is that the main problem with berbatov is that he is yet another lazy player in a team that doesn't have enough grafters to begin with. playing nani, ronaldo and berbatov was a step too far, and the benefit of having tevez and rooney on was manifested in a distinctly higher workrate & tempo. what united need to do is probably play park and fletcher alongside carrick, giving them just enough to allow the benefits of berbatov & ronaldo to be felt.
we shall see.
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